Resume

• 2007

  Booker T Washington High School

  PhD

  Economics

  University of Kansas

• 2005

  MA

  Economics

  Southern Methodist University

• 2001

  BA

  Economics

  Mathematics

  Spanish

  University of Kansas Honors Program

  Mt. Oread Scholars

  KU Camerata

  University of Kansas

• Economic Research

  SAS

  Economics

  Time Series Analysis

  Quantitative Analytics

  Teaching

  Public Speaking

  Statistics

  R

  Econometrics

  Higher Education

  Analytics

  Microsoft Office

  Research

  Macroeconomics

  Data Analytics

  Stata

  EViews

  Statistical Modeling

  Data Analysis

  A Divisia User Cost Interpretation of the Yield Spread Recession Prediction

  A re-evaluation of the role of interest rates is necessary in the wake of the Great Recession. This paper will re-evaluate the interpretation and empirical use of the yield spread as a predictor of recessions

  focusing on the simplified methodology in a New York Federal Reserve Bank paper by Estrella and Trubin. Using the user cost difference formula to calculate bond prices following the methodology in the Divisia literature begun by William A. Barnett and a unique data set from the Center for Financial Stability

  the yield spread is shown to be a form of the user cost difference

  and use of the user cost is shown to marginally improve the predictive abilities of the yield spread. Further research into this view of the link of interest rates and economic activity is proposed.

  A Divisia User Cost Interpretation of the Yield Spread Recession Prediction

  Rex Pjesky

  Considering the goals of Modern Monetary Theorists

  this article examines inflation stabilization and employment maximization through a Taylor Rule for fiscal policy

  similar to John Taylor’s foundational examination of the behavior of the Federal Reserve. If it is the role of the federal government to aid in the maintenance of the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve

  then their behavior should follow a similar policy of setting an intermediate target of deficits relative to the maximum employment (the “Federal Job Guarantee”) and the inflation target. The paper will compare the historical data with the rule. When the predictions of the Deficit Rule are compared to historical data from 1965

  we find that fiscal policy aligns with what the Deficit Rule predicts with two exceptions: the stagflation of the 1970s and the current increases in budget deficits.

  Approaching Modern Monetary Theory with a Taylor Rule

  Jeff van den Noort

  The paper details the data collection and construction methods for the broad Divisia monetary aggregates released by the Center for Financial Stability in 2012. Updated data can be found at:\nhttp://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

  The New CFS Divisia Monetary Aggregates: Design

  Construction

  and Data Sources

  Asset market development is characterized by reducing market imperfections that generate costs incurred from participating in the financial system. In developing economies where financial markets are nascent

  these costs are likely to be binding. This limits the typical economic agent's ability to fully access asset market

  inducing partial access.In this note

  we embed financial market imperfections into the Divisia aggregate-theoretic literature and illustrate their relevance in the derivation of user cost of money and consequently

  Divisia monetary aggregates. Asset market imperfections are introduced through endogenous portfolio adjustment costs that proxy for

  among other things

  informational

  transactional

  liquidity

  and portfolio management costs. The presence of adjustment costs induce additional costs that alter the standard user cost of money. We show that the user cost that arises from our model canbe practically implemented in the construction of Divisia aggregates as in the standard Barnett (1978) user cost.

  Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Developing Economies: Some Theory

  In this paper

  we use the weak separability criterion to check for the existence of six different monetary aggregates reported by the Center of Financial Stability (CFS). We implement an extended version of the semi-nonparametric tests introduced by Barnett and de Peretti on US monthly data from January 1967 to December 2012. The test

  first

  checks for the necessary existence conditions of an overall utility function and a monetary subutility function

  and then tests for the separability of the latter. On different subsamples

  our results suggest that only the DM1 aggregate meets the separability criterion. Implemented on macroeconomic data

  we have tested a joint assumption about separability and the existence of a representative agent. Thus

  the rejection of the null could also be due to the rejection of stringent Gorman's conditions. More advanced tests for weak separability are clearly required to confirm the results found in this paper.

  Testing for Weak Separability Using Stochastic Semi-Nonparamteric Tests: An Empirical Study on US Data

  Differences in Divisia and simple-sum money arise from appropriate weighing mechanisms in Divisia

  which rely on information on the user cost of monetary assets. We show convergence in the growth rate of Divisia M4 and its simple-sum counterpart beginning in early 2009

  shortly after the collapse in the Federal Funds rate. This phenomenon results from compression in user costs.

  Compression in monetary user costs in the aftermath of the financial crisis: implications for the Divisia M4 monetary aggregate

  Dongfeng Chang

  The predictive power of the yield curve slope

  or the yield spread is well established in the United States (US) and European Union (EU) countries since 1998. However

  there exists a gap in the literature on the predictive power of the yield spread on the Chinese economy. This paper provides a different leading recession indicator using the Chinese and US economy as comparative examples: the user cost spread

  being the difference of the opportunity costs of holding government securities of different maturities. We argue that the user cost spread

  based on the Divisia monetary aggregate data like the ones produced by the Center for Financial Stability

  provides improved predictive ability and a better intuitive explanation based on changes in the user cost price of holding bonds.

  The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US

  Construction and analysis of Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Mexico from 1997 to 2015.

  Presenter and Session Organizer at Society for Economic Measurement

  I have presented papers as well as organized sessions regarding research and data analysis using Divisia monetary aggregates at the following Annual Conferences for the Society of Economic Measurement.\n\nFirst Annual Conference: University of Chicago

  August 18-20

  2014.\n\nSecond Annual Conference: OECD

  Paris

  France

  July 22-24

  2015. \n\nThird Annual Conference: The Bank of Greece and Aristotle University

  Thessaloniki

  Greece

  July 6-8

  2016. \n\nFourth Annual Conference: Massachusettes Institute of Technology

  Boston

  MA

  July 26-28

  2017.\n\nSixth Annual Conference: The European Central Bank and Goethe University

  August 16-18

  2019. \n

  Ryan

  Mattson

  Rhodes College

  Center for Financial Stability

  West Texas A&M University

  University of Kansas

  Canyon

  TX

  Developed and delivered online and in-class versions of undergraduate level courses to a variety of students of different backgrounds and levels. Courses focused on developing student skills in writing

  data management in Excel

  and statistical analysis using R while deeply exploring economic fundamentals. \n\nAchieved over $50

  000 in external grant funding to develop and implement research and teaching projects with students and faculty.

  Assistant Professor

  West Texas A&M University

  Greater New York City Area

  Database management for the Divisia monetary aggregates under the program Advances in Monetary and Financial Measures using Excel and R for monthly updates.

  Research Associate

  Center for Financial Stability

  Lawrence

  Kansas

  Assisted professor and facilitated discussion groups for Principles of Microeconomics and Introductory Economics.

  Graduate Teaching Assistant

  University of Kansas

  Lawrence

  KS

  Curriculum and teaching for Economic Development

  Latin American Economic Development

  and Introductory Economics.

  Instructor of Record

  University of Kansas

  Lawrence

  Kansas

  Compiled data and conducted research under the supervision of William Barnett for his program \"Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurements\" with the Center for Financial Stability during the Summer 2011 and Summer 2012.

  Graduate Research Assistant

  University of Kansas

  Memphis

  TN

  Designed and lead seminars in Latin American Economies and Principles of Economics which developed student knowledge of markets

  data work in Excel

  and professional writing.

  Visiting Assistant Professor

  Rhodes College

  Society for Economic Measurment

  Spanish

  English

  Honors Pass

  Final Defense

  Dissertation Committee

  the University of Kansas Department of Economics

  Faculty Professional Service Award

  Award for outstanding service to the college including but not limited to grant writing

  developing resources for students and faculty

  and leadership with student groups.

  The Paul and Virginia Engler College of Business

  West Texas A&M University